Having lost two in a row, this is a must-win fight for Rios if he is to get another chance at a big money fight. Meanwhile Chaves is trying to take his career to the next level. He suffered his first major setback last July, getting knocked out in ten rounds by Keith Thurman, but came back with a 3rd round TKO of Juan Alberto Godoy in February. Both Rios and Chaves are desperate for a big win and Saturday night have the opportunity to decide their fates with their fists.
Even though both fighters are 28, they are at very different points in their careers. Rios, fighting out of Oxnard, California, has fought superior competition, and profits from the experience that comes with that. The downside is that he has taken more damage, both from the wars he has had with the likes of Mike Alvarado and his never ending battle with the scale. Rios has a slight height advantage and a significant reach advantage, but neither will matter because he is going to work on the inside. Rios is going to try to set a pace that will wear down his opponent, but in order to accomplish this he needs to lose weight effectively and arrive to the fight in good shape. If he starves and sweats himself to 147 he will tire in the later rounds. Chaves, San Miguel, Argentina, has more options. He can either try to use his superior power to hurt Rios on the inside, or mimic Mike Alvarado's game plan and fire off right hands on the outside. One weakness Rios could exploit is that Chaves sometimes keeps up a very high guard, which should provide Rios with room to land body shots.
In a heart-to-heart battle, Rios, 31-2-1 (23), rarely comes up short. But he will Saturday. Chaves is the less battle worn fighter, and his hunger will carry him through the fight. Chaves will start fast, looking to catch the slow starting Rios early. Rios will take some damage early, but by the third or fourth round his engine will rev up, and he’ll start forcing Chaves back. Chaves will switch tactics, looking to pump his jab to Rios’ head and body, and mix in some odd angles with his right hand to buckle Rios. Rios should still have success working Chaves against the ropes, but the thinking here is that, faced with a big, strong welterweight, Rios will find these moments of success far less frequently that usual. Rios didn't have an answer to Alvarado in their second fight and he won’t have an answer to Chavez either. Chaves, 23-1 (19), should build a safe points lead, but wary of Rios’ penchant for strong finishes, will look to end matters before the last few rounds. Ripping five and six punch combinations, Chaves will have Rios smiling, his face growing more grotesque as the fight continues. Despite the willingness of Rios and trainer Robert Garcia, the doctors will intervene, awarding Chaves the victory by late round technical knockout.