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Two veterans of the sport will battle for the middle weight championship of the world. The thing that makes this fight interesting is that neither man is in the best time of their career. Sergio Martinez at age 39 is lucky if he does not get injured in the ring. Miguel Cotto is a natural 147 pounder challenging for the 160 pound title. His face also has a habit of turning into a bloody mask. My pick for the night is Maravilla and these are my reasons:
For once he is the bigger heavier man. There is no way Cotto's power can successfully translate from 147. He will hit hard, but not that much harder than Sergio. Unlike many boxers, such as Austin Trout and Delvin Rodriguez, Sergio Martinez can stand and bang. With his injured knee he might be forced to give up some of his mobility. Memories of Williams vs Martinez 1 come to mind.
Despite promises from Cotto's team, the later rounds will be won by Sergio. Nearly all of his fights follow a similar trend, he earns the early rounds by jabbing and boxing, his opponent starts to find his range in the middle rounds, then Martinez adapts and brakes his opponent. Evidence can be found from the Pavlik, Macklin, and Barker fights.
Final statement: Even with his fragile state Sergio Martinez will be victorious. Straight left hands down the pipe will deter Cotto from throwing his left hook, and cumulative damage will show by round 6. After 8 gruelling rounds Maravilla will launch an all out assault on the head and body of Cotto, the referee verging on stopping the fight. Cotto's conditioning saves him and he survives the round. The rest of the fight is dull, with an exhausted Martinez doing just enough to keep a bloodied Miguel Cotto at bay. UD for Sergio Martinez.